Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 20.100644 21.188730 22.327184 23.611220 25.024121 26.537084 28.287268
2026-02-08 18.219995 19.692892 21.301600 23.202929 25.407160 27.905452 30.985543
2026-02-15 17.158501 18.848065 20.746176 23.061737 25.846098 29.134960 33.390699
2026-02-22 16.621626 18.514079 20.692874 23.426844 26.825937 31.000148 36.662934
2026-03-01 15.885585 17.876575 20.210991 23.203519 27.021628 31.857784 38.678551
2026-03-08 15.060850 17.076680 19.472329 22.593041 26.654180 31.923772 39.590616
2026-03-15 14.496108 16.557198 19.039166 22.324095 26.684654 32.484085 41.201166
2026-03-22 14.297403 16.470847 19.129097 22.714680 27.590340 34.275912 44.750145
2026-03-29 14.043043 16.297847 19.093041 22.926747 28.253292 35.763783 47.998511
2026-04-05 13.804459 16.130415 19.050059 23.117582 28.886105 37.243325 51.398968
2026-04-12 13.450513 15.798943 18.775257 22.972443 29.021797 37.978451 53.644328
2026-04-19 13.062034 15.407803 18.404161 22.672123 28.906758 38.308738 55.215528
2026-04-26 12.668689 15.008567 18.021500 22.357617 28.781172 38.657664 56.956445
2026-05-03 12.280121 14.604115 17.618057 21.995964 28.564182 38.844280 58.431532
2026-05-10 12.002121 14.335622 17.386576 21.865467 28.684449 39.581885 61.054101
2026-05-17 11.906295 14.304999 17.476026 22.199391 29.538610 41.618613 66.614459
2026-05-24 11.632528 14.025414 17.209847 21.995261 29.524577 42.148131 69.104157
2026-05-31 11.254539 13.594490 16.719254 21.436718 28.908162 41.558027 69.033999
2026-06-07 10.998483 13.323105 16.444202 21.190371 28.785845 41.848029 71.012375
2026-06-14 10.951273 13.334952 16.567078 21.548080 29.675184 44.070561 77.984176
2026-06-21 10.854658 13.274981 16.584192 21.742146 30.299444 45.855140 84.339714
2026-06-28 10.756587 13.209518 16.589979 21.916690 30.898319 47.650018 91.226016
2026-07-05 10.571908 13.017849 16.406228 21.783949 30.950048 48.345496 95.208555